The growth of global digital ad spend slowed down in 2022, but the results were not as bad as some had feared. The pain was mostly in social media, especially Meta, and in markets with a lot of problems, such as Western Europe and China. Much of the world and many ad publishers are doing fine, and 2023 should be a little better.
Our predictions for the total amount spent on ads, digital ads, display ads, and search ads around the world in 2023. Also, how much we spend and make on digital advertising by region, country, and company. This article is based on eMarketer’s research.
Our method for predicting global ad spending is based on 43k data points from 600 sources, including economic conditions and historical trends in the advertising market. We also consider the reports from other statistics sources.
We look at the market from the bottom up, considering how much each company makes from ads. This information comes from quarterly reports on earnings, annual reports to shareholders, and statements made by executives during earnings calls. We took additional estimates from third-party research firms and data from ad agencies, brands, media publishers, and other industry leaders who cover these companies
Table of Contents
- Global Forecast of digital ad spending
- Traditional and Digital ad spending forecast
- Digital ad spend growth by countries and regions
- Digital ad spending forecast in Europe
- Economic factors and currency fluctuations impact ad spending
- Digital ad spending by ad type and format.
- Top countries and regions for digital ad spends
- Digital advertising spending by platforms
- Growth projections for ad platforms by ad revenue
- Impact of ad spend forecast on marketing strategies
Global Forecast of digital ad spending
Our newly updated global forecast says that the total amount spent on advertising in the media will increase by 6.9% from 2022 to 2023. This is less than what we thought before, but it’s still an enormous improvement over what happened in 2022. We now think that people spent $37 billion less on ads last year than we thought they would when we made our March forecast.
We cut our estimate for the growth of ad spending around the world in 2022 from 10.6% to 5.1%. This is a low growth rate compared to the past, but it is better than the 0.0% growth caused by a pandemic in 2020 and about the same as growth rates from a decade ago. Also, we expect growth to be higher than it was in 2022 for the next few years.
We think that 2022 will be the lowest point of the new period of slower growth. In 2023, advertisers will spend nearly $60 billion more than they did in 2022, and total spending is still on track to reach $1 trillion for the first time in 2024, the same year that was expected before.
Nearly every ad spending measure we keep track of grew at its fastest rate ever in 2021. (we began our global forecasting in 2011). Because of this, the 16.4% drop in growth in 2022 surprised many people in the industry.
Traditional and Digital ad spending forecast
Even worse, traditional advertising spending (on TV, newspapers, radio, magazines, and out-of-home) went from going up by 9.8% in 2021 to going down by 0.9% in 2022. Even in 2023, traditional will not come back in a big way.
The news isn’t as bad for spending on digital ads. Even though many people in the industry were surprised by the sharp drop in growth from 2021 to 2022, spending on digital ads still went up by 8.6% worldwide in 2022. That number is much lower than we expected (15.6% was our previous guess), but it’s not a disaster. And we expect growth to pick up a little over the next few years to reach the low double-digit range.
Even though digital ad spending will continue to grow faster than the market, it has entered a new period of slower growth. In the 10 years before 2022, the world’s spending on digital ads grew by an average of 20% per year. This number will stay around 10% for the next five years.
In 2023, they will spend nearly $60 billion on new ads around the world will be digital. This increase of $59.37 billion is good news for digital publishers and ad agencies all over the world. Digital advertising isn’t falling off a cliff; its rate of growth is just slowing down to what will be the new average.
This year, digital ad spending will make up over two-thirds of all ad spending for the first time. This is a big step for an industry that is still shaky.
| Metric | Geography | Data Type | Unit | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Traditional media ad spending | worldwide | USD | Billions | $278 | $305 | $303 | $303 | $310 | $312 | $317 |
| Traditional media ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | -16.4% | 9.8% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% |
| Digital ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 15.7% | 29.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% |
Digital ad spend growth by countries and regions
The drop in spending on digital ads in 2022 was different in each market, and the rise in spending in 2023 will be the same. Some countries and regions are slowing down quickly, while others are slowing down more slowly. We didn’t expect 2022 to be as hard for Western Europe and China as it was. Latin America still grew a lot, even though the final numbers will be lower than we had thought. Western Europe should be in a better place by 2023, but China won’t change much.
Our regional and national comparisons have shown that China and Western Europe have not met our expectations, while Latin America and India continue to perform well.
In 2023, we project only five countries to exhibit double-digit growth rates for total media ad spending. Among these nations, India stands out as the sole large market for achieving this feat. Digital advertising is experiencing double-digit growth rates in 14 countries, including the United States. While the industry faces challenges, the digital advertising sector remains resilient.
We have forecasted that Latin America countries will dominate the top 10 digital ad growth in 2023. Whilst Brazil stands alone as the sole nation in the region to feature among the world’s top 10 in digital expenditure, the entire region is currently undergoing a significant surge in advertising. Our projections show that 5 Latin America countries under our watch will secure a spot in the top six global leaders for digital growth. We expect the entire region to experience a 14.0% surge in digital ad spending.
We expect a moderate deceleration compared to the previous two years, however, it will not be a significant disruption. While inflation may be a contributing factor to certain national growth figures in the region, it is important to note that most of these increases are indeed authentic. The organic growth phase in Latin America is still ongoing.
India presents a significant opportunity for growth beyond the Latin America market. India’s digital ad spending growth momentum is expected to be sustained for several more years, similar to its peers south of the US border. By 2023, India is poised to join the ranks of the top 10 global ad markets, marking a significant milestone for the country’s advertising industry.
The Indian digital advertising sector presents a vast potential for expansion, given that conventional advertising expenses are projected to make up 67.6% of the nation’s overall ad expenditures by 2023. This ratio is in stark contrast to the worldwide average.
| Metric | Geography | Data Type | Unit | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Digital ad spending growth | australia | % change | Percent | 3.0% | 25.5% | 17.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | china | % change | Percent | 19.0% | 19.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% |
| Digital ad spending growth | india | % change | Percent | 14.0% | 32.0% | 24.2% | 16.5% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 13.1% |
| Digital ad spending growth | indonesia | % change | Percent | 10.0% | 30.5% | 17.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% |
| Digital ad spending growth | japan | % change | Percent | 8.6% | 18.3% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Digital ad spending growth | south korea | % change | Percent | 14.0% | 20.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Digital ad spending growth | thailand | % change | Percent | 14.8% | 17.7% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% |
| Digital ad spending growth | new zealand | % change | Percent | 6.2% | 19.9% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Digital ad spending growth | singapore | % change | Percent | 10.0% | 22.8% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% |
| Digital ad spending growth | malaysia | % change | Percent | 9.3% | 16.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Digital ad spending growth | hong kong | % change | Percent | 8.0% | 13.0% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Digital ad spending growth | philippines | % change | Percent | 8.6% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | taiwan | % change | Percent | 8.0% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | vietnam | % change | Percent | 8.2% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% |
| Digital ad spending growth | other asia-pacific | % change | Percent | 14.8% | 22.3% | 20.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% |
| Digital ad spending growth | asia-pacific | % change | Percent | 16.0% | 20.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
| Digital ad spending growth | argentina | % change | Percent | 2.3% | 47.8% | 25.5% | 19.2% | 20.0% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | brazil | % change | Percent | 21.0% | 31.2% | 20.0% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | mexico | % change | Percent | 1.2% | 35.0% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | peru | % change | Percent | 18.0% | 47.3% | 30.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | chile | % change | Percent | 19.0% | 47.9% | 20.0% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | colombia | % change | Percent | 31.0% | 55.0% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 16.7% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| Digital ad spending growth | other latin america | % change | Percent | 19.8% | 38.2% | 20.3% | 16.5% | 17.7% | 15.3% | 11.8% |
| Digital ad spending growth | latin america | % change | Percent | 15.5% | 35.8% | 19.3% | 14.0% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 11.8% |
| Digital ad spending growth | middle east & africa | % change | Percent | 45.0% | 30.0% | 28.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 14.0% | 9.4% |
| Digital ad spending growth | canada | % change | Percent | 9.0% | 28.0% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% |
| Digital ad spending growth | us | % change | Percent | 17.3% | 37.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% |
| Digital ad spending growth | north america | % change | Percent | 16.9% | 36.8% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% |
| Digital ad spending growth | russia | % change | Percent | 6.0% | 32.0% | -48.2% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | turkey | % change | Percent | 20.0% | 30.0% | -20.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% |
| Digital ad spending growth | other central & eastern europe | % change | Percent | 7.2% | 32.3% | 1.6% | -0.8% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 9.2% |
| Digital ad spending growth | central & eastern europe | % change | Percent | 7.2% | 32.1% | -19.2% | 3.4% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 9.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | france | % change | Percent | 3.5% | 30.0% | -2.5% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | germany | % change | Percent | 11.0% | 27.5% | -7.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | italy | % change | Percent | 5.5% | 24.0% | -7.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| Digital ad spending growth | spain | % change | Percent | -3.0% | 34.0% | -4.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | uk | % change | Percent | 9.0% | 36.0% | -3.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Digital ad spending growth | other western europe | % change | Percent | 14.3% | 24.0% | -3.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% |
| Digital ad spending growth | western europe | % change | Percent | 9.4% | 30.1% | -4.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% |
| Digital ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 15.7% | 29.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% |
| Digital ad spending growth | eu-5 | % change | Percent | 7.7% | 32.4% | -4.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
| Digital ad spending growth | southeast asia | % change | Percent | 10.7% | 19.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% |
Digital ad spending forecast in Europe
In the year 2022, Western Europe, Turkey, and Russia experienced a significant decline in their overall ad spending growth. However, we expect a slight rebound in the year 2023. The volatile fluctuations in exchange rates during 2022 have significantly contributed to the wild swings observed in the market. The ad spending outcomes for 2022 in the UK, Eurozone, and Turkey were mitigated by the local currency’s weakness against the dollar.
Our UK ad spending experienced a decline of 4.9% in US dollars in 2022. However, there was an increase in spending by £3.33 billion in pounds sterling.
Our ad spending in Germany experienced a significant decline of 11.7% in US dollars in 2022. However, we saw a modest increase of €733.5 million.
We observed analogous trends in France, Italy, Spain, and Turkey. The decline in both US dollars and rubles was substantial in Russia.
Economic factors and currency fluctuations impact ad spending
The prevailing inflationary environment poses a significant challenge in deciphering these outcomes. Our projections show that by 2023, we will witness a restoration of stability in relation to inflation and currency fluctuations. However, until that time, it is important to note that international comparisons will remain subject to these particular considerations.
The stagnation in China is a significant contributor to the decline in global growth. China has showed remarkable leadership in the global increase of ad expenditure from 2018 to 2020. China’s shift from an ad spending engine to a drag on the global average is now clear. Our ad outlays in China experienced a slight increase of 3.7% in 2022, with a projected modest rebound of 6.5% in 2023. It is noteworthy that our projection shows a lack of double-digit growth in China’s digital ad spending for the duration of our forecast period. (which stretches to 2026).
A significant portion of the decline will result from our own actions. Implementing China’s latest data privacy laws, anti-monopoly measures, and regulatory restrictions on its internet giants will undoubtedly limit the growth of its digital advertising sector for the foreseeable future.
The current macroeconomic situation in China continues to deteriorate. Our projected GDP growth of 5.5% for 2022 is unfortunately not on track to be met. China’s “zero COVID” policy has had a significant impact on consumer confidence, resulting in record low levels. As we witness the swift relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, it is imperative to acknowledge the looming concern that our Chinese counterparts may grapple with the epidemic that their government has successfully contained for the past three years, well into 2023.
Digital ad spending by ad type and format.
The slowdown in digital spending in 2022 also had different effects on different ad types. In 2022, growth slowed down a lot for both search and display, but Display was in a worse position. Display-heavy social media ad revenues were very disappointing in 2022, as shown by Meta’s record-low performance and TikTok’s big revenue miss.
Search and retail media that were used for performance marketing did a little better. Given how bad the economy is around the world, that was an expected result. Apple’s new privacy rules have also hurt display advertising on social media, but they don’t affect search as much.
In 2022, spending on search ads grew faster than spending on display ads. This was the first time this has happened since we started keeping track of the numbers in 2013. Display will come back in 2023, but it’s not getting as much market share as it used to. After spending years moving money from search to display, search will only lose a little ground from now on.
For further reading, check out our guide on the latest video marketing statistics.
Top countries and regions for digital ad spends
We expect that China and the western (english-speaking) nations will maintain their dominance in the digital advertising expenditure share rankings. China has been and will continue to be the leading metric in this area for the foreseeable future, extending until 2026 and beyond. The Asia-Pacific region boasts a powerful presence in the upper echelons, with Taiwan, South Korea, China, Australia, and New Zealand all making the top 10. At one end of the rankings, we have Japan and the Southeast Asia countries. The current state of digital transformation varies significantly throughout the region.
Our team has conducted a thorough analysis and has identified the top 10 countries that are projected to have the highest digital ad spending share in 2023. We are pleased to share this valuable information with our stakeholders.
North America continues to be the primary hub for both overall advertising expenditure and digital advertising expenditure, with Asia-Pacific following in second place but experiencing a widening gap. Our projections show that North America’s digital ad spending will reach $290.78 billion by 2023, representing a staggering 46.4% of the global total. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to represent a significant portion of our revenue, comprising 32.6% or $204.23 billion. Europe’s contribution will amount to a mere 14.5%, while Latin America’s will be a modest 2.9%. As expected, the regional outcomes will be primarily influenced by the United States and China.
Our team has conducted a thorough analysis and has identified the top 10 countries that are projected to lead in digital ad spending by the year 2023. (billions)
Based on our projections, we expect that the digital spending rankings for 2023 will closely resemble those of the previous year, except Canada, which is expected to ascend to one position. Based on our analysis, we expect a stable outlook for the ranking of high-spending nations in the coming years.
| Metric | Geography | Data Type | Unit | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Digital ad spending | australia | US Dollars $ | Billions | $7.21 | $9.04 | $10.66 | $11.38 | $11.95 | $12.35 | $12.60 |
| Digital ad spending | china | US Dollars $ | Billions | $101.38 | $121.46 | $129.59 | $140.10 | $153.46 | $166.65 | $180.17 |
| Digital ad spending | india | US Dollars $ | Billions | $2.09 | $2.76 | $3.43 | $3.99 | $4.60 | $5.25 | $5.94 |
| Digital ad spending | indonesia | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.71 | $0.92 | $1.08 | $1.21 | $1.33 | $1.45 | $1.56 |
| Digital ad spending | japan | US Dollars $ | Billions | $16.15 | $19.10 | $20.81 | $22.09 | $23.16 | $24.13 | $24.90 |
| Digital ad spending | south korea | US Dollars $ | Billions | $4.69 | $5.65 | $6.18 | $6.44 | $6.69 | $6.96 | $7.22 |
| Digital ad spending | thailand | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.76 | $0.90 | $1.02 | $1.14 | $1.22 | $1.30 | $1.38 |
| Digital ad spending | new zealand | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.95 | $1.14 | $1.24 | $1.30 | $1.34 | $1.38 | $1.40 |
| Digital ad spending | singapore | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.54 | $0.66 | $0.74 | $0.81 | $0.88 | $0.96 | $1.03 |
| Digital ad spending | malaysia | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.36 | $0.43 | $0.46 | $0.50 | $0.53 | $0.56 | $0.59 |
| Digital ad spending | hong kong | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.86 | $0.97 | $1.04 | $1.09 | $1.12 | $1.15 | $1.17 |
| Digital ad spending | philippines | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.46 | $0.52 | $0.56 | $0.61 | $0.66 | $0.71 | $0.77 |
| Digital ad spending | taiwan | US Dollars $ | Billions | $1.24 | $1.40 | $1.49 | $1.54 | $1.59 | $1.62 | $1.64 |
| Digital ad spending | vietnam | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.30 | $0.34 | $0.37 | $0.40 | $0.44 | $0.48 | $0.52 |
| Digital ad spending | other asia-pacific | US Dollars $ | Billions | $7.19 | $8.79 | $10.62 | $ 11.64 | $ 12.72 | $ 13.55 | $ 14.51 |
| Digital ad spending | asia-pacific | US Dollars $ | Billions | $ 144.89 | $ 174.07 | $ 189.28 | $ 204.23 | $ 221.68 | $ 238.49 | $ 255.40 |
| Digital ad spending | argentina | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.36 | $0.54 | $0.67 | $0.80 | $0.96 | $1.12 | $1.29 |
| Digital ad spending | brazil | US Dollars $ | Billions | $4.40 | $5.78 | $6.93 | $7.72 | $8.72 | $9.76 | $10.83 |
| Digital ad spending | mexico | US Dollars $ | Billions | $2.04 | $2.75 | $3.16 | $3.62 | $4.16 | $4.66 | $5.18 |
| Digital ad spending | peru | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.13 | $0.19 | $0.25 | $0.30 | $0.36 | $0.43 | $0.50 |
| Digital ad spending | chile | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.32 | $0.47 | $0.57 | $0.66 | $0.78 | $0.90 | $1.02 |
| Digital ad spending | colombia | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.36 | $0.55 | $0.65 | $0.75 | $0.88 | $1.02 | $1.18 |
| Digital ad spending | other latin america | US Dollars $ | Billions | $2.18 | $3.02 | $3.63 | $4.23 | $4.98 | $5.74 | $6.42 |
| Digital ad spending | latin america | US Dollars $ | Billions | $9.79 | $13.30 | $15.86 | $18.08 | $20.84 | $23.63 | $26.42 |
| Digital ad spending | middle east & africa | US Dollars $ | Billions | $11.16 | $14.50 | $18.56 | $22.65 | $27.86 | $31.75 | $34.74 |
| Digital ad spending | canada | US Dollars $ | Billions | $7.61 | $9.75 | $10.92 | $12.19 | $13.59 | $15.13 | $16.75 |
| Digital ad spending | us | US Dollars $ | Billions | $161.08 | $221.06 | $248.72 | $278.59 | $311.46 | $347.88 | $385.47 |
| Digital ad spending | north america | US Dollars $ | Billions | $168.69 | $230.81 | $259.64 | $290.78 | $325.05 | $363.01 | $402.22 |
| Digital ad spending | russia | US Dollars $ | Billions | $3.26 | $4.31 | $2.23 | $2.53 | $2.85 | $3.16 | $3.44 |
| Digital ad spending | turkey | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.35 | $0.45 | $0.36 | $0.40 | $0.44 | $0.48 | $0.51 |
| Digital ad spending | other central & eastern europe | US Dollars $ | Billions | $4.56 | $6.03 | $6.13 | $6.08 | $6.89 | $7.70 | $8.40 |
| Digital ad spending | central & eastern europe | US Dollars $ | Billions | $ 8.16 | $ 10.79 | $ 8.72 | $ 9.01 | $ 10.18 | $ 11.33 | $ 12.36 |
| Digital ad spending | france | US Dollars $ | Billions | $6.00 | $7.80 | $7.60 | $8.37 | $9.29 | $10.22 | $11.14 |
| Digital ad spending | germany | US Dollars $ | Billions | $9.61 | $12.25 | $11.29 | $12.08 | $13.23 | $14.28 | $15.28 |
| Digital ad spending | italy | US Dollars $ | Billions | $3.14 | $3.89 | $3.59 | $3.84 | $4.20 | $4.50 | $4.79 |
| Digital ad spending | spain | US Dollars $ | Billions | $2.28 | $3.05 | $2.93 | $3.19 | $3.54 | $3.86 | $4.13 |
| Digital ad spending | uk | US Dollars $ | Billions | $23.35 | $31.76 | $30.53 | $33.21 | $36.70 | $39.64 | $42.41 |
| Digital ad spending | other western europe | US Dollars $ | Billions | $16.35 | $20.28 | $19.50 | $21.42 | $23.39 | $25.27 | $26.93 |
| Digital ad spending | western europe | US Dollars $ | Billions | $60.73 | $79.04 | $75.43 | $82.11 | $90.35 | $97.76 | $104.69 |
| Digital ad spending | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $403.42 | $522.50 | $567.49 | $626.86 | $695.96 | $765.98 | $835.82 |
| Digital ad spending | eu-5 | US Dollars $ | Billions | $44.38 | $58.75 | $55.93 | $60.69 | $66.96 | $72.50 | $77.75 |
| Digital ad spending | southeast asia | US Dollars $ | Billions | $3.14 | $3.76 | $4.23 | $4.66 | $5.05 | $5.45 | $5.85 |
Digital advertising spending by platforms
Let’s review our revenue performance for Peak. The duopoly has been a thing of the past.
As the CEO, it’s clear that Meta had a challenging year in 2022. Our estimations show a 2.0% decline in ad revenues globally, which is a noteworthy turning point for Meta and Google’s ad duopoly. It is highly probable that the year 2021 will mark the pinnacle of their combined supremacy. In that year, Meta and Google briefly dominated over 50% of the global digital advertising revenues. The likelihood of replicating this achievement is low.
Internationally, we have observed that the duopoly has been maintaining its market share, unlike in the US where it has been experiencing a decline since 2018. Our global advertising presence has not been as robust as our domestic efforts, but we are actively working to improve this. We have observed the emergence of formidable new competitors such as ByteDance and Apple, who have rapidly gained significant market shares on a global scale.
Our projected global digital ad revenue share for the years 2015-2024 shows a significant duopoly dominance.
The duopoly’s upward momentum had been consistently strong until 2022, as we have been diligently tracking since 2011. For nearly a decade, Google’s substantial advertising enterprise has experienced robust global expansion. During that period, the company experienced a decline in market share, primarily because of the exponential growth of Facebook. Despite a temporary setback caused by the pandemic, both companies have experienced a significant surge in 2021. Currently, the declining trend seems to have a more natural progression. The current outlook for Meta is less than favorable, while Google is experiencing a period of more moderate growth.
It’s noteworthy that Alibaba, Amazon, and ByteDance have emerged as major players in the advertising industry, surpassing the advertising expenditure of several nations. By 2023, Kuaishou, the Chinese short-video app, will be included in the list, followed by Apple in 2024. The competitive landscape in the industry will become more crowded, although Alphabet and Meta will maintain their leading positions.
As we look ahead to 2022, it’s clear that the digital advertising landscape will continue to be a key driver of growth for companies across the globe. In particular, we’re seeing a significant uptick in net digital ad revenues for those organizations with over $10 billion in revenue. This trend underscores the importance of investing in digital advertising strategies that can help drive revenue growth and enhance brand visibility in an increasingly competitive marketplace. As we move forward, it will be critical for companies to stay ahead of the curve and continue to innovate in this space in order to remain competitive and drive long-term success. (billions)
Currently, Google and Meta hold the largest market shares globally, with Amazon and ByteDance showing promising growth. Although there have been gains, it is important to note that the duopoly remains dominant in the digital ad revenue market. The three main challengers are projected to only capture a mere 20.2% of the market share by 2023, which is only slightly higher than Meta’s current share. Our company’s market dominance is evident as our closest competitor, Tencent, only holds a mere 2.1% market share.
| Metric | Geography | Data Type | Unit | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Google search ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $84.73 | $121.68 | $137.45 | $147.33 | $161.84 |
| Baidu search ad spending | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $6.58 | $7.09 | $7.14 | $7.22 | $7.29 |
| Microsoft search ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $4.09 | $5.49 | $6.23 | $6.67 | $7.07 |
| Search ad spending | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $159.52 | $207.19 | $228.16 | $247.59 | $274.18 |
| Google search ad revenue growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 5.2% | 43.6% | 13.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% |
| Baidu search ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | -11.4% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Microsoft search ad revenue growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | -6.2% | 34.0% | 13.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Search ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 12.0% | 29.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.7% |
| Google search ad revenues (% of total search ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 53.1% | 58.7% | 60.2% | 59.5% | 59.0% |
| Baidu search ad spending (% of search ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| Microsoft search ad revenues (% of total search ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Meta display ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $84.17 | $114.93 | $112.68 | $121.90 | $134.72 |
| Google display ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $19.16 | $27.31 | $30.99 | $33.25 | $39.20 |
| Baidu display ad spending | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $2.69 | $3.17 | $3.19 | $3.26 | $3.41 |
| Microsoft (LinkedIn) display ad spending | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $2.43 | $3.83 | $4.51 | $5.27 | $6.88 |
| Twitter display ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $3.15 | $4.46 | $4.67 | $4.74 | $4.79 |
| ByteDance TikTok/Douyin display ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $15.00 | $20.85 | $29.07 | $36.20 | $44.05 |
| Display ad spending | worldwide | US Dollar $ | Billions | $223.85 | $293.00 | $316.67 | $355.77 | $397.57 |
| Meta display ad revenue growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 20.8% | 36.6% | -2.0% | 8.2% | 10.5% |
| Google display ad revenue growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 17.6% | 42.6% | 13.5% | 7.3% | 17.9% |
| Baidu display ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 2.0% | 17.9% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 4.8% |
| Microsoft (LinkedIn) display ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 40.6% | 57.2% | 17.8% | 16.8% | 30.7% |
| Twitter display ad revenue growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 7.4% | 41.3% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| ByteDance TikTok/Douyin display ad revenue growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 111.4% | 39.0% | 39.4% | 24.5% | 21.7% |
| Display ad spending growth | worldwide | % change | Percent | 20.3% | 30.9% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 11.7% |
| Meta display ad revenues (% of total display ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 37.6% | 39.2% | 35.6% | 34.3% | 33.9% |
| Google display ad revenues (% of total display ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% |
| Baidu display ad spending (% of display ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Microsoft (LinkedIn) display ad spending (% of display ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| Twitter display ad revenues (% of total display ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| ByteDance TikTok/Douyin display ad revenues (% of total display ad spending) | worldwide | Share | Percent | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% |
| Google ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $103.88 | $148.99 | $168.44 | $180.59 | $201.05 |
| YouTube ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $9.51 | $13.90 | $15.29 | $17.00 | $19.71 |
| Meta ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $84.17 | $114.93 | $112.68 | $121.90 | $134.72 |
| Facebook ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $56.09 | $72.75 | $69.41 | $71.32 | $75.11 |
| Instagram ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $28.08 | $42.18 | $43.28 | $50.58 | $59.61 |
| Yahoo ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $4.84 | $5.03 | $5.15 | $5.26 | |
| Microsoft ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $7.42 | $10.51 | $12.23 | $13.67 | $16.03 |
| LinkedIn ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $3.33 | $5.02 | $5.99 | $7.00 | $8.96 |
| IAC ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.66 | $0.89 | $1.32 | $1.39 | $1.50 |
| Verizon Media ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $4.25 | ||||
| Amazon ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $19.77 | $31.16 | $37.99 | $45.72 | $55.99 |
| Pandora ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $1.18 | $1.54 | $1.62 | $1.68 | $1.74 |
| Twitter ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $3.15 | $4.46 | $4.67 | $4.74 | $4.79 |
| Yelp ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.84 | $0.99 | $1.06 | $1.13 | $1.20 |
| Snapchat ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $2.16 | $3.39 | $3.97 | $4.73 | $5.81 |
| Pinterest ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $1.69 | $2.58 | $2.74 | $3.20 | $3.71 |
| Reddit ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.17 | $0.32 | $0.38 | $0.44 | $0.53 |
| Spotify ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.88 | $1.43 | $1.58 | $2.03 | $2.53 |
| Apple ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $3.62 | $5.07 | $7.06 | $8.92 | $10.69 |
| Roku ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $0.85 | $1.68 | $2.23 | $2.74 | $3.48 |
| ByteDance TikTok/Douyin ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $15.00 | $20.85 | $29.07 | $36.20 | $44.05 |
| TikTok ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $1.41 | $3.88 | $9.89 | $14.15 | $18.49 |
| Alibaba ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $34.68 | $38.64 | $41.01 | $44.53 | $48.91 |
| Baidu ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $9.27 | $10.26 | $10.33 | $10.48 | $10.70 |
| SINA ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $1.60 | $2.08 | $2.09 | $2.15 | $2.21 |
| Tencent ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $11.92 | $12.47 | $12.51 | $12.99 | $13.56 |
| JD.com ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $5.37 | $7.01 | $7.79 | $8.67 | $9.68 |
| Kuaishou ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $3.39 | $6.61 | $8.37 | $10.61 | $13.37 |
| Meituan ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $2.86 | $4.42 | $5.11 | $5.92 | $6.83 |
| Other companies digital ad revenues | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $84.63 | $87.36 | $88.19 | $97.29 | $97.62 |
| Digital ad spending | worldwide | US Dollars $ | Billions | $ 403.42 | $ 522.50 | $ 567.49 | $ 626.86 | $ 695.96 |
Growth projections for ad platforms by ad revenue
Our focus is on the net ad revenue share at select companies worldwide from 2017 to 2024, presented as a percentage of total digital ad spending.
Various companies are experiencing significant declines in growth, not just Google and Meta. Most of the prominent entities in China, excluding TikTok, are currently experiencing a significant downturn. The impact of China’s recent regulatory measures and economic challenges has been significant for both Alibaba and Baidu. Meituan’s growth rate remains positive, albeit at a reduced pace. Douyin, our esteemed domestic champion, is presently undergoing a natural transition from its previously explosive growth phase.
While TikTok’s growth was significant, it fell short of expectations in 2022. The industry media has rightfully highlighted TikTok’s underperformance in 2022, which serves as a clear indication of the challenges faced by social media advertising. Our latest projections for TikTok have been downgraded by $1.75 billion. TikTok’s global revenues have experienced a remarkable growth of 155.0% in 2022, reaching an impressive $9.89 billion. Looking ahead, we expect a further increase of 43.0% in 2023, with revenues expected to reach $14.15 billion. It is important to emphasize that this growth trajectory does not show any form of crisis.
Regrettably, Twitter is conspicuously absent from the charts presented below. The current state of Twitter’s privatization, the Elon Musk controversy, and the ongoing advertiser relations fiasco make it difficult to project confidently for 2023 and 2024. Based on our projections, Twitter is expected to generate $4.67 billion in global ad revenues in 2022, representing a 4.9% growth from the previous year. We have projected figures for 2023 and beyond, however, I advise caution to potential buyers.
We anticipate a significant increase in global net digital ad revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, as per our projections for various companies.
Our projections indicate a significant resurgence in Instagram’s growth trajectory by 2023, while other platforms may not experience a similar upswing. We anticipate a promising acceleration for Pinterest and Spotify this year, while Instagram’s robust performance in 2023 and 2024 will undoubtedly bolster Meta’s overall growth trajectory. We anticipate that the majority of players will maintain a stable position within the current slow to medium-growth climate.
Our projections indicate that Google is poised to become the foremost advertising company to reach the $200 billion milestone by 2024. Once achieved, the ad revenue lead on Meta will surpass that of any other individual ad publisher globally, amounting to a staggering $66.33 billion. The market’s balance of power is expected to shift significantly towards one player in the duopoly.
We shall be closely monitoring the net digital ad revenues worldwide, segmented by company, for the years 2022 through 2024. (billions)
Spotify has successfully secured a place in our global rankings as the only digital ad publisher outside of the United States and China. Our projections indicate that the ad revenues of the Swedish digital audio company will exceed $2 billion by 2023 and will further escalate to $2.53 billion by 2024. Although the figures are a downward revision from our previous projections, they still represent a healthy growth trajectory. Check out our podcast statistics compilation to see how Spotify relies on podcast advertising.
Impact of ad spend forecast on marketing strategies
The majority of global advertising expenditure is concentrated in the United States and China, both of which experienced significant growth declines in 2022. The challenging market conditions have resulted in a tumultuous year for numerous ad industry stakeholders and analysts. In the grand scheme of things, the year 2022 was relatively favorable on a global level, especially when compared to past events. It is imperative to note that stabilization of growth is projected for the year 2023.
While a worldwide ad market may not exist, there are several key insights that can be derived from this collection of projections.
We should avoid overreacting to the 2022 downshift.
During challenging times, it may seem prudent to cut back, however, it is important to note that the decline in advertising expenditures is expected to be of a brief nature. It is imperative for marketers to steer clear of any setbacks as the industry gains momentum once again.
While we may not see a resurgence in digital ad spending growth to previous levels, it is important to note that the total amount of new funds allocated to this area will remain in the tens of billions annually. We anticipate that the forthcoming years of 2023 and 2024 will exhibit a sense of stability akin to the years of 2018 and 2019. We need to return to our standard operations.
It is unlikely that China will resume its role as a growth catalyst, while the United States may potentially assume this position.
The United States market has consistently served as the bedrock of worldwide advertising expenditure. Therefore, any misstep within the US market has the potential to cause significant concern throughout the industry. I am pleased to report that our projections indicate that US ad spending growth will surpass the global average in the coming years, with a further acceleration expected in 2024. The situation in China, regrettably, presents a limited scope for positivity. Moving forward, it is anticipated that China’s advertising expenditure will persist in its underperformance.
It is advisable for marketers to persevere through the challenging times in developed markets. The European market is poised for a resurgence, however, the United States is anticipated to generate a greater influx of fresh capital.
The current scenario is characterized by a certain degree of ambiguity due to the fluctuations in exchange rates and rampant inflation.
Assessing the global health of the advertising industry is a complex task, as it is subject to the volatile fluctuations of local currencies and the soaring price hikes experienced in various nations. The state of ad spending in various nations may not be accurately reflected due to the prevailing strength of the US dollar. Inflationary pressures in various nations have resulted in a distortion of reality in the diametrically opposite direction. Simultaneous occurrences of both phenomena are being observed across various regions of Europe.
We anticipate that 2023 will provide greater clarity on the matter at hand. We anticipate a reduction in inflation, stabilization of the US dollar, and a modest rebound in ad spending growth, despite the persistently challenging economic climate. Moving forward, we can expect relative growth rates to accurately reflect the unique disparities among countries and regions.
Latin America and India have emerged as significant players among the emerging markets.
Latin America and India, along with Southeast Asia occasionally, have been identified as the future for quite some time. Looking ahead to 2023, we can confidently say that the future will have arrived. It is noteworthy that India is poised to make a significant impact in the global ad spending arena by securing a spot in the top 10, while Brazil has already secured the ninth position. Latin America is poised to surpass North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific in digital advertising for the foreseeable future.
The scale of spending in these countries and regions is not yet at par with that of the US, China, and Western Europe. The current dynamism exhibited by their locality surpasses all others, and the overall expenditure involved has attained global significance. It is imperative that our marketing team prioritizes these regions with immediate effect.
